6 Sept · 23:20 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JO
🇨🇿Jan Oleksik
ELO 1477
FormWWWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Oleksik
MD
🇨🇿Miroslav Dolezal
ELO 1459
FormLWLLW
51%
49%
🌟Dolezal covers set handicap as underdog 62% (24)
Fair odds · Oleksik
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~73 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+18
H2H3-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.