7 Sept · 09:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JP
🇨🇿Jan Przybyla
ELO 1494
FormLWLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Pawlik
DP
🇨🇿Dominik Pawlik
ELO 1512
FormLLLLW
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Przybyla🌟Pawlik rarely covers set handicap as favourite 35% (62)
Fair odds · Pawlik
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+18
H2H8-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.