7 Sept · 09:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
RM
🇨🇿Radek Muller
ELO 1518
FormLWWLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Muller
MF
🇨🇿Martin Filipek
ELO 1470
FormWWLWL
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Filipek🌟Muller rarely covers set handicap as favourite 33% (49)
Fair odds · Muller
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~81 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+48
H2H15-19
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.