7 Sept · 14:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MH
🇨🇿Matej Holub
ELO 1586
FormLLWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Holub
RN
🇨🇿Radek Neterda
ELO 1550
FormLWWLW
53%
47%
🌟Neterda covers set handicap as underdog 64% (36)
Fair odds · Holub
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+36
H2H4-11
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.