7 Sept · 09:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
FM
🇨🇿Filip Mandrysz
ELO 1484
FormWWLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Mandrysz
LS
🇨🇿Lukas Krupnik Snr
ELO 1459
FormWWLLL
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Snr🌟Snr covers set handicap as underdog 75% (36)
Fair odds · Mandrysz
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+25
H2H1-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.