7 Sept · 14:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MC
🇨🇿Martin Cerny
ELO 1713
FormWWLLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Cerny
DV
🇨🇿David Vesecky
ELO 1669
FormLLLWL
54%
46%
🌟Vesecky covers set handicap as underdog 65% (102)
Fair odds · Cerny
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+44
H2H74-71
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.