7 Sept · 13:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MH
🇨🇿Matej Holub
ELO 1586
FormLLWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Holub
RF
🇨🇿Radek Fitl
ELO 1532
FormWLWWL
54%
46%
Fair odds · Holub
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+54
H2H8-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.