7 Sept · 15:25 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JK
🇨🇿Jan Kocab
ELO 1605
FormLWLLL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Cerny
MC
🇨🇿Martin Cerny
ELO 1713
FormWWLLW
41%
59%
Fair odds · Cerny
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 69% · 1.45· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~75 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+108
H2H18-5
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+108)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (18-5)