7 Sept · 14:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
RB
🇨🇿Radek Benes
ELO 1555
FormLWLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Benes
DJ
🇨🇿Dalibor Velky Jr
ELO 1547
FormLWWLL
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Jr
Fair odds · Benes
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+8
H2H30-28
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.