7 Sept · 11:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MF
🇨🇿Martin Filipek
ELO 1470
FormWWLWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Filipek
FB
🇨🇿Frantisek Balcar
ELO 1441
FormWLWWW
52%
48%
🌟Filipek goes over total as favourite 64% (74)
Fair odds · Filipek
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~80 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+29
H2H14-18
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.