7 Sept · 09:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
BM
🇨🇿Bartlomiej Molka
ELO 1590
FormWWWLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Lysakowski
ML
🇨🇿Michal Lysakowski
ELO 1638
FormWWLLL
46%
54%
Fair odds · Lysakowski
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~80 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+48
H2H65-40
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.