7 Sept · 12:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
BM
🇨🇿Bartlomiej Molka
ELO 1584
FormLWWWL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Stepien
MS
🇨🇿Marcin Stepien
ELO 1661
FormWWLWW
44%
56%
🌟Stepien goes over total as favourite 67% (12)
Fair odds · Stepien
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 59% · 1.69· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~79 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+77
H2H108-78
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+77)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (108-78)