7 Sept · 16:45 MESZMedium · Model Lean
DO
🇨🇿David Osvald
ELO 1550
FormLLWWL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Osvald
FT
🇨🇿Filip Theodor
ELO 1443
FormLWWWW
59%
41%
🔥 Underdog lean · Theodor🌟Theodor covers set handicap as underdog 63% (27)
Fair odds · Osvald
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~75 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+107
H2H2-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+107)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (2-0)