7 Sept · 17:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
KZ
🇨🇿Karel Zeman
ELO 1479
FormWLWWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Reska
VR
🇨🇿Vladislav Reska
ELO 1501
FormWLWWW
48%
52%
Fair odds · Reska
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~74 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+22
H2H15-11
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.