7 Sept · 15:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MB
🇨🇿Matej Beran
ELO 1515
FormWWWLL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Jr
VJ
🇨🇿Vaclav Hejda Jr
ELO 1585
FormWLWLL
44%
56%
🔥 Underdog lean · Beran🌟Beran covers set handicap as underdog 78% (23)
Fair odds · Jr
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-1
17%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+70
H2H7-6
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+70)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (7-6)