8 Sept · 07:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PS
🇨🇿Patrik Sturma
ELO 1474
FormLWWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Sturma
RJ
🇨🇿Richard Jancak
ELO 1425
FormLWLLL
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Jancak🌟Sturma rarely covers set handicap as favourite 28% (68)
Fair odds · Sturma
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~74 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+49
H2H10-14
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.