8 Sept · 08:40 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MM
🇨🇿Michal Macurak
ELO 1603
FormWWWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Macurak
TK
🇨🇿Tomas Krenek
ELO 1593
FormWWLWW
51%
49%
🌟Krenek goes over total as underdog 68% (81)
Fair odds · Macurak
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+10
H2H11-11
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.