8 Sept · 08:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PS
🇨🇿Patrik Sturma
ELO 1474
FormLWWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Strelec
AS
🇨🇿Adam Strelec
ELO 1487
FormLLWWL
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sturma🌟Sturma covers set handicap as underdog 69% (91)
Fair odds · Strelec
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+13
H2H8-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.