8 Sept · 08:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JG
🇨🇿Jan Gembala
ELO 1613
FormWWWWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Gembala
TK
🇨🇿Tomas Krenek
ELO 1593
FormWWLWW
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Krenek🌟Krenek goes over total as underdog 68% (81)
Fair odds · Gembala
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+20
H2H16-10
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.