8 Sept · 10:15 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AS
🇨🇿Adam Strelec
ELO 1487
FormLLWWL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Strelec
RJ
🇨🇿Richard Jancak
ELO 1425
FormLWLLL
55%
45%
🔥 Underdog lean · Jancak🌟Strelec rarely covers set handicap as favourite 36% (39)
Fair odds · Strelec
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~75 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
17%
1-3
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+62
H2H3-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+62)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (3-1)