8 Sept · 14:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DJ
🇨🇿Dalibor Velky Jr
ELO 1538
FormWLLLL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Jr
TK
🇨🇿Tomas Kindl
ELO 1536
FormLWWWW
50%
50%
🌟Kindl goes over total as underdog 64% (66)
Fair odds · Jr
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~79 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+2
H2H21-17
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.