8 Sept · 09:40 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MM
🇨🇿Michal Macurak
ELO 1603
FormWWWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Gembala
JG
🇨🇿Jan Gembala
ELO 1613
FormWWWWW
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Macurak🌟Gembala rarely covers set handicap as favourite 35% (88)
Fair odds · Gembala
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+10
H2H1-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.