8 Sept · 13:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
LS
🇨🇿Lukas Krupnik Snr
ELO 1466
FormWWWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Sturma
PS
🇨🇿Patrik Sturma
ELO 1474
FormLWWWL
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Snr🌟Snr covers set handicap as underdog 77% (39)
Fair odds · Sturma
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+8
H2H14-10
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.