8 Sept · 12:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
DV
🇨🇿David Vesecky
ELO 1645
FormWLLLL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Cerny
MC
🇨🇿Martin Cerny
ELO 1739
FormWWWWW
42%
58%
🌟Vesecky covers set handicap as underdog 63% (104)
Fair odds · Cerny
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~75 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+94
H2H75-71
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+94)
- ✓Better recent form (5-0)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (75-71)