8 Sept · 11:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JG
🇨🇿Jan Gembala
ELO 1634
FormWWWWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Gembala
MM
🇨🇿Michal Macurak
ELO 1609
FormLWWWW
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Macurak🌟Gembala rarely covers set handicap as favourite 35% (88)
Fair odds · Gembala
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+25
H2H2-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.