8 Sept · 17:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JO
🇨🇿Jan Osmera
ELO 1545
FormLWWLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Osmera
CK
🇨🇿Christian Kratochvil
ELO 1492
FormWWWLL
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kratochvil🌟Kratochvil covers set handicap as underdog 74% (43)
Fair odds · Osmera
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~79 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+53
H2H19-15
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.