8 Sept · 15:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
DS
🇨🇿Dawid Stapor
ELO 1540
FormLWLWW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Stapor
MB
🇨🇿Mateusz Burkacki
ELO 1462
FormWLLLW
56%
44%
Fair odds · Stapor
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+78
H2H8-5
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+78)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (8-5)