8 Sept · 22:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
WA
🇨🇿Wiekiera Arkadiusz
ELO 1548
FormLLWWL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Arkadiusz
JK
🇨🇿Jakub Komorowicz
ELO 1459
FormWLLWW
57%
43%
Fair odds · Arkadiusz
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 66% · 1.52· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~78 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+89
H2H47-30
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+89)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (47-30)