9 Sept · 08:15 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AS
🇨🇿Adam Strelec
ELO 1490
FormWLWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Matus
JM
🇨🇿Jiri Matus
ELO 1502
FormWLWWW
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Strelec🌟Strelec covers set handicap as underdog 70% (40)
Fair odds · Matus
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+12
H2H8-12
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.