9 Sept · 12:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JL
🇨🇿Jan Lovl
ELO 1561
FormLLWWL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Lovl
RV
🇨🇿Richard Vavricka
ELO 1487
FormWWLLL
56%
44%
Fair odds · Lovl
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~74 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+74
H2H4-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+74)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (4-0)