9 Sept · 10:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DP
🇨🇿Dominik Pawlik
ELO 1522
FormWWWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Lasota
LL
🇨🇿Laurent Lasota
ELO 1529
FormWWLWL
49%
51%
🌟Pawlik covers set handicap as underdog 66% (62)
Fair odds · Lasota
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+7
H2H2-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.