9 Sept · 09:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AL
🇨🇿Ales Langer
ELO 1511
FormWWWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Vonasek
JV
🇨🇿Jan Vonasek
ELO 1542
FormWLLLL
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Langer🌟Langer covers set handicap as underdog 62% (149)
Fair odds · Vonasek
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 61% · 1.64· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+31
H2H37-20
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.