9 Sept · 10:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JM
🇨🇿Jiri Matus
ELO 1502
FormWLWWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Matus
FM
🇨🇿Filip Mandrysz
ELO 1480
FormLWLLW
52%
48%
🌟Matus rarely covers set handicap as favourite 34% (65)
Fair odds · Matus
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+22
H2H18-15
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.