9 Sept · 08:40 MESZLow · Coin Flip
RB
🇨🇿Radek Benes
ELO 1538
FormLWLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Benes
DP
🇨🇿Dominik Pawlik
ELO 1522
FormWWWLL
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Pawlik🌟Pawlik covers set handicap as underdog 66% (62)
Fair odds · Benes
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+16
H2H10-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.