9 Sept · 10:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MB
🇨🇿Michal Brozek
ELO 1645
FormWLLWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Brozek
AR
🇨🇿Adam Martin Rek
ELO 1596
FormLWLLW
54%
46%
🌟Rek covers set handicap as underdog 65% (51)
Fair odds · Brozek
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 65% · 1.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+49
H2H31-19
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.