9 Sept · 17:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
TO
🇨🇿Tomas Ogrocki
ELO 1385
FormWLLLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Jokiel
PJ
🇨🇿Patrik Jokiel
ELO 1440
FormLWLWL
46%
54%
🌟Jokiel rarely covers set handicap as favourite 35% (40)
Fair odds · Jokiel
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 44% · 2.25· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+55
H2H13-22
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.