9 Sept · 18:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MB
🇨🇿Matej Beran
ELO 1509
FormLWWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Beran
MD
🇨🇿Milan Dvorak
ELO 1471
FormLWLWW
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Dvorak🌟Beran rarely covers set handicap as favourite 26% (39)
Fair odds · Beran
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~74 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+38
H2H1-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.