9 Sept · 18:20 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
SM
🇨🇿Simon Matousch
ELO 1379
FormLLWLL
66%Win chancemodel fair 1.52Cesak
MC
🇨🇿Michal Cesak
ELO 1575
FormWLWLW
34%
66%
🔥 Underdog lean · Matousch🌟Cesak rarely covers set handicap as favourite 30% (64)
Fair odds · Cesak
Model 66% · 1.52vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 48%Total ~75 pts
1-3
25%
0-3
23%
2-3
18%
3-2
14%
3-1
13%
Elo Gap+196
H2H13-4
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+196)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (13-4)