9 Sept · 17:20 MESZLow · Coin Flip
SM
🇨🇿Simon Matousch
ELO 1379
FormLLWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Dusek
ZD
🇨🇿Zdenek Dusek
ELO 1391
FormWLWLW
49%
51%
🌟Matousch covers set handicap as underdog 63% (52)
Fair odds · Dusek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+12
H2H2-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.