9 Sept · 17:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MB
🇨🇿Matej Beran
ELO 1509
FormLWWWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Dvorak
JD
🇨🇿Jakub Dvorak
ELO 1532
FormWWWLL
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Beran🌟Beran covers set handicap as underdog 80% (25)
Fair odds · Dvorak
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~74 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+23
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.