9 Sept · 21:35 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JM
🇨🇿Jirasek Martin
ELO 1511
FormLWWLW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Martin
JV
🇨🇿Jan Vidourek
ELO 1510
FormWWWLL
50%
50%
🌟Martin stays under total as favourite 70% (27)
Fair odds · Martin
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+1
H2H1-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.