10 Sept · 09:25 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JO
🇨🇿Jan Osmera
ELO 1553
FormWWWLL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Osmera
TR
🇨🇿Tomas Rein
ELO 1488
FormLWWLW
55%
45%
🔥 Underdog lean · Rein
Fair odds · Osmera
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 70% · 1.42· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~75 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+65
H2H32-12
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+65)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (32-12)