10 Sept · 08:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
TG
🇨🇿Tomas Grmela
ELO 1500
FormLLWWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Benes
RB
🇨🇿Radek Benes
ELO 1534
FormLLWWL
47%
53%
Fair odds · Benes
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 47% · 2.15· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+34
H2H1-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.