10 Sept · 08:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JM
🇨🇿Jiri Matus
ELO 1518
FormWWWLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Matus
FM
🇨🇿Filip Mandrysz
ELO 1466
FormWLLLL
54%
46%
🌟Matus rarely covers set handicap as favourite 34% (65)
Fair odds · Matus
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 53% · 1.87· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+52
H2H19-15
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.