10 Sept · 09:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DP
🇨🇿Dominik Pawlik
ELO 1541
FormWWLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Pawlik
TG
🇨🇿Tomas Grmela
ELO 1500
FormLLWWW
53%
47%
🌟Pawlik rarely covers set handicap as favourite 35% (65)
Fair odds · Pawlik
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+41
H2H2-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.