10 Sept · 14:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MH
🇨🇿Matej Holub
ELO 1583
FormWWLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Ruzicka
JR
🇨🇿Jan Ruzicka
ELO 1595
FormWLWWL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Ruzicka
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 43% · 2.34· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+12
H2H6-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.