10 Sept · 09:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
FD
🇨🇿Frantisek Dvorak
ELO 1540
FormLWWLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Dvorak
TR
🇨🇿Tomas Rein
ELO 1488
FormLWWLW
54%
46%
Fair odds · Dvorak
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 71% · 1.41· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+52
H2H55-30
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.