10 Sept · 14:50 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MN
🇨🇿Michal Nemec
ELO 1326
FormLLWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Nemec
MK
🇨🇿Michal Kolbusovsky
ELO 1313
FormWWLWW
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kolbusovsky🌟Nemec rarely covers set handicap as favourite 34% (106)
Fair odds · Nemec
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 61% · 1.64· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+13
H2H35-23
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.