10 Sept · 10:15 MESZLow · Coin Flip
RB
🇨🇿Radek Benes
ELO 1534
FormLLWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Pawlik
DP
🇨🇿Dominik Pawlik
ELO 1541
FormWWLWW
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Benes🌟Pawlik rarely covers set handicap as favourite 35% (65)
Fair odds · Pawlik
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+7
H2H7-11
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.