10 Sept · 10:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MG
🇨🇿Mateusz Galus
ELO 1579
FormLLWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Galus
SR
🇨🇿Szymon Radlo
ELO 1562
FormLLLWW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Galus
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+17
H2H24-28
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.